When I watch presidential candidates on youtube, Myspace and Facebook, I can’t help but to think that most of them are using social networks sites in order to appear relevant. Yet I have not seen one of them use my plan for winning a presidential election by using Myspace.
Let me explain. If you watch the candidates, they are all opening themselves up for friends on myspace. They are doing the same on Facebook and then they are running videos on youtube. Some of them are paying money for their political videos to be featured on youtube so that they get a ton of hits.
I think the youtube strategy is actually pretty strong. It gets out their name and people watch those videos. It shapes an image of the candidates being up to date and projects the image that they are “cool” on the Internet.
But when I watch the candidates on Myspace, I see a flaw in their strategy. All the candidates are doing is accepting friends blindly and trying to rack up their totals. So they can have bragging rights of having 100,000-200,000 friends. What does that do for the candidate? Chances are it does very little. It might add some volunteers and it may even get them a few donations.
But the real power to use Myspace in the election would be to isolate the strategy to two states. Those two states are Iowa and New Hampshire.
Why do I pick Iowa and New Hampshire?
Let me show you. Iowa and New Hampshire have a huge impact on picking the presidential candidate for each party. I am going to show you that a candidate must be in the top three in New Hampshire or/and Iowa in order to be president. There will be those that will tell you that all the other states have moved up their primaries this year. So that means Iowa and New Hampshire are less important. I don’t think that is true. I actually think that moving up the primaries in the other states will actually cause Iowa and New Hampshire to be even more powerful in picking the president.
Here are the results of the Republican Iowa caucus over the past several years:
Republicans
- 2004- George W. Bush* (unopposed)
- 2000- George W. Bush* (41%) defeated Steve Forbes (30%), Alan Keyes (14%), Gary Bauer (9%), John McCain (5%) and Orrin Hatch (1%)
- 1996- Bob Dole (26%) defeated Pat Buchanan (23%), Lamar Alexander (18%), Steve Forbes (10%), Phil Gramm (9%), Alan Keyes (7%), Richard Lugar (4%) and Morry Taylor (1%)
- 1992- George H. W. Bush (unopposed)
- 1988- Bob Dole (37%) defeated Pat Robertson (25%), George H. W. Bush* (19%), Jack Kemp (11%) and Pete DuPont (7%)
- 1984- Ronald Reagan* (unopposed)
- 1980- George H. W. Bush (32%) defeated Ronald Reagan* (30%), Howard Baker (15%), John Connally (9%), Phil Crane (7%), John B. Anderson (4%) and Bob Dole (2%)
- 1976- Gerald Ford defeated Ronald Reagan
Look at 2004. President Bush was unopposed. Look at 2000. President Bush won the Iowa Caucus. He went on to be the party nominee. Look at 1996. Bob Dole won and he went on to be the presidential candidate. Look at 1992. George H.W. Bush was unopposed and he became the party nominee. Look at 1988. In that year, George H.W. Bush was in third place and went on to be the nominee. So even in 1988, my theory holds. Look at 1984. Ronald Reagan is unopposed. Look at 1980. Ronald Reagan comes in second. He is only 2% behind George H.W. Bush but he is still in the top 2. Look at 1976. Gerald Ford wins and he goes on to be the nominee.
Now lets look at the Results of the New Hampshire Primaries in the last several years.
Republicans
- 2004: President George W. Bush (no serious opposition)
- 2000: Senator John McCain defeated Governor George W. Bush, Malcolm S. “Steve” Forbes, Jr., Ambassador Alan Keyes, and Gary L. Bauer
- 1996: Pat Buchanan defeated Senator Bob Dole, Governor A. Lamar Alexander, Steve Forbes, Senator Richard G. “Dick” Lugar, and Ambassador Alan Keyes
- 1992: President George H. W. Bush defeated Patrick J. “Pat” Buchanan
- 1988: Vice President George H. W. Bush defeated Senator Bob Dole, Congressman Jack F. Kemp, Jr., Governor Pierre S. “Pete” du Pont IV, and Reverend Marion G. “Pat” Robertson
- 1984: President Ronald Reagan (no serious opposition)
- 1980: Governor Ronald Reagan defeated Ambassador George H. W. Bush, Senator Howard H. Baker, Jr., Congressman John B. Anderson, and Congressman Philip M. “Phil” Crane
- 1976: President Gerald R. Ford defeated Governor Ronald Reagan
- 1972: President Richard Nixon defeated Congressman Paul N. “Pete” McCloskey, Jr. and Congressman John M. Ashbrook
- 1968: Vice President Richard M. Nixon defeated Governor George Romney
- 1964: Ambassador Henry Cabot Lodge, Jr. defeated Senator Barry M. Goldwater, Governor Nelson A. Rockefeller, and Vice President Richard Nixon
- 1960: Vice President Richard Nixon (no serious opposition)
- 1956: President Dwight D. Eisenhower (no serious opposition)
- 1952: General Dwight D. Eisenhower defeated Senator Robert Taft and Governor Harold Stassen
- 1948: Governor Harold E. Stassen defeated Governor Thomas E. Dewey
Look at 2004. President Bush is unopposed. He wins the party nomination. Look at 2000. President Bush comes in second place. He is the parties nomination. (New Hampshire has a history of going against the frontrunner. Look at 1996. Bob Dole comes in second place. (Once again, you can see how New Hampshire goes against the frontrunner). But Bob Dole is still in second place and wins the nomination. Look at 1992. George W. H. Bush wins and goes on to be the party nominee. Look at 1988. George W. H. Bush wins and goes on to be the party nominee. Look at 1984. Ronald Reagan is unopposed. Ronald Reagan wins the nomination.
I don’t have to go any farther. You get the point. A candidate for the Republican party wants to be in the top 3 in Iowa and New Hampshire. In fact, a Republican candidate is looking best if he wins Iowa and is in the top two for New Hampshire.
Now we will look at the Democrats for the Iowa Caucas:
Democrats
- 2004 – John Kerry (38%) defeated John Edwards (32%), Howard Dean (18%), Richard Gephardt (11%) and Dennis Kucinich (1%)
- 2000 – Al Gore (63%) defeated Bill Bradley (37%)
- 1996 – Bill Clinton* (unopposed)
- 1992 – Tom Harkin (76%) defeated Paul Tsongas (4%), Bill Clinton* (3%), Bob Kerrey (2%) and Jerry Brown (2%)
- 1988 – Dick Gephardt (31%) defeated Paul Simon (27%), Michael Dukakis (22%) and Bruce Babbitt (6%)
- 1984 – Walter Mondale (49%) defeated Gary Hart (17%), George McGovern (10%), Alan Cranston (7%), John Glenn (4%), Rueben Askew (3%) and Jesse Jackson (2%)
- 1980 – Jimmy Carter (59%) defeated Ted Kennedy (31%)
- 1976 – “Uncommitted” (37%) defeated Jimmy Carter* (28%) Birch Bayh (13%), Fred R. Harris (10%), Morris Udall (6%), Sargent Shriver (3%) and Henry M. Jackson (1%)
- 1972 – Edmund Muskie (36%) defeated George McGovern (23%), Hubert Humphrey (2%), Eugene McCarthy (1%), Shirley Chisholm (1%) and Henry M. Jackson (1%)
It has been a little more unpredictable on the Democrats side You can see Bill Clinton was down in Iowa in 1992 with a very low vote but he was still just barely in the top 3. That year, no one even tried to win on the Democrat’s side in Iowa because Tom Harkin was from Iowa and it was pointless to try to beat him. So he won easily. You can see that Michael Dukakis is in the number 3 position in 1988. But they were still in the top three. So Iowa is a little less accurate in picking a Democrat for president but the top 3 is important.
Now lets look at New Hampshire for the Demcrats.
Democrats
- 2004: Senator John Kerry defeated Governor Howard B. Dean III, General Wesley K. Clark, Senator John Edwards, Senator Joseph I. Lieberman, Congressman Dennis J. Kucinich and Civil Rights activist Al Sharpton.
- 2000: Vice President Al Gore defeated Senator Bill Bradley
- 1996: President Bill Clinton (no serious opposition)
- 1992: Senator Paul Tsongas defeated Governor Bill Clinton, Senator Bob Kerrey, Senator Tom Harkin, and Governor Jerry Brown
- 1988: Governor Michael Dukakis defeated Congressman Richard A. “Dick” Gephardt, Senator Paul Simon (politician), Reverend Jesse L. Jackson, and Senator Al Gore
- 1984: Senator Gary Hart defeated Vice President Walter Mondale, Senator John Glenn, Reverend Jesse L. Jackson, and Senator George McGovern
- 1980: President Jimmy Carter defeated Senator Edward Kennedy and Governor Jerry Brown.
- 1976: Governor Jimmy Carter defeated Congressman Mo Udall, Senator Birch Bayh, Senator Fred R. Harris, and Ambassador R. Sargent Shriver
- 1972: Senator Edmund Muskie defeated Senator George McGovern and Mayor Samuel William Yorty
- 1968: President Lyndon B. Johnson defeated Senator Eugene McCarthy
- 1964: President Lyndon B. Johnson (no serious opposition)
- 1960: Senator John F. Kennedy (no serious opposition
Do you see who won in 2004? It is John Kerry. Al Gore wins 2000. Bill Clinton is unopposed in 1996. Bill Clinton jumps up to the number two spot in 1992 and even though he loses to Paul Tsongas, he looks like the winner.
Now go ahead and check the rest of the results.
So a presidential candidate must be in the top three of either Iowa or New Hampshire. He/she should probably be in the top three for both. He or she should probably win one or the other but it doesn’t have to happen that way. But the candidate has to be in the top three.
So despite the fact that we go through this whole election, the major candidates are narrowed down to a few after Iowa and New Hampshire.
So a candidate will need to be in the top three but will probably want to be in the top two and win one or the other. The reason is the media focuses in on the top people at that point. So they are getting free attention. In addition to that, the candidates start running out of money. They need the money they will get from this free publicity.
Now this is where Myspace comes in. These candidates are adding a few hundred thousand friends. What will this do for them? It will give them a cool look but it will not do much.
But if a candidate set up a Myspace account in every area code in Iowa and New Hampshire, they would gain an advantage over the other candidates. What they would need to do is set up the accounts and try to friend everyone in each zip code. This sounds like a lot of work but over the course of a couple of months, a handful of volunteers can do it. 60% of those people will be under 18. So the candidate will ignore them. They can’t vote. A real smart candidate will offer myspace a million or two to send out a mass friend request to everyone. But even if myspace refuses to do that, they can have volunteers do it. The “search” section of myspace only shows people that are 18 and older anyway.
So the candidate gains all of these friends. Now the candidate has a few months. The candidate must find out how to mobilize these voters in Iowa and New Hampshire. The New Hampshire vote is a popular vote. So whoever gets the most votes wins. So the candidate will want to test a few of the zip codes. He/she will have hundreds of them. He/she will want to try to get all of his friends to come out to a trial vote. He/she will want to find out what is most effective at mobilizing voters on myspace. He/she will try food, dinners and everything else. Only a fraction of the people will show up for all this work. But you can imagine the impact this can have on the primary if just a few votes are gained in each zip code.