August 29, 2010
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Are Books Becoming Obsolete?
I believe that printed books will become functionally obsolete in the next 15 years. I believe organizations like Barnes and Noble and Books-A-Million will collapse. I believe public libraries will close up shop.
Major releases of books will be online.
I even noticed that the Oxford Dictionary may no longer be made in printed form. Here is the link: Link
Why? People are doing more of their reading online. This pattern will continue until it is no longer realistic to put a book in printed form. Even Amazon will eventually suffer from this trend. They will profit in the short term because they will sell more books as bookstores go under. But it will be in the same way that Blockbuster Video profited as the little video stores went under. But eventually the decline in video rentals hurt Blockbuster.
Do you believe that printed books are becoming obsolete?
Comments (193)
this just made my heart collapse. i just finished updating my reading list…
I prefer printed books to e-books, but I too see the trend towards online reading and Kindle downloads. Only time will tell.
No. And for your information, I love them. I love the bookstore. They better not die.
Those who truly love reading will always truly love books.
I doubt that will happen in 15 years. Too many people still prefer printed books.
Irregardless, I prefer printed books. (That’s just for Matt)
Think of all the trees it will save
If they do, I’ll be kind of pissed off. I love reading a good ol’ paperback.
I hope not.
NO.
I much prefer having a book in my hands. I hate reading books online.
Honestly though,there is still nothing like curling up in bed with a lamp and a good book,it’s not the same as sitting in front of a computer screen,I think there will always be books.
NOOOOO!!!! I will not admit that people seem to be trying to turn everything into e-books.
I hope books don’t die though. It hurts my eyes to read stuff over a computer screen for too long. I won’t be able to have my long reading sessions if that happens. The only books I want as eBooks only are my textbooks. I will suffer some pain if it means they cost less.
I prefer printed books
this post just made me so sad. i really hope this never happens, i love my books.
No, if anything I would think that sooner or later the kindle will be obsolete. Like… it would fade out of style.
I hope not, even though I dont read, my Dad reads, my sister reads, my Nan and Granddad read (also I think my uncles and aunties read), also my cousins.
Currently I find it more difficult to read something on a screen than on paper.
I think that books are and will continue to head to being solely online, but there will always be bookstores. But I think that those bookstores will become more and more like antique stores.
Personally, if I want a book, I will buy a hard copy.
I read a lot of webcomics and many of the artists also sell physical copies of what they put online for free. You would think that not many would buy something they can have for free, but that really isn’t true in this case.
Not in my house. I buy at least 5 books a month for me and my children. The bookstore is my candy store.
=((( I love the printed book! the book stores are still mostly places that I go or hang out at. Reading printed books will never go out of style! This post makes me sad inside.
No, I just think they’re going in a different direction; electronically.
(hopefully they don’t go extinct, I’m an aspiring publisher!)
disagree I will be a librarian
Stupidity is the new “books.”
I find that to be really sad. I love the smell of libarys and new books. And fear the day when libarys are obsolete.
Perhaps book stores will go under, but hopefully the libraries last abit longer. I perfer the printed book myself, since it doesnt hurt my eyes as much as staring at a computer screen does.
No, I don’t wanna believe it!!! … you are probably right though! (boooo…tech whores!!=P) I don’t ever read books, but I freaking love the way they smell!~ especially the oldies. hahaha(how silly is that??) …..
I think there are too many people who love books now for it to be obsolete in 15 years. Maybe around 30. I’m sure when I’m a grandmother, my grandchildren will have online books. So, they’ll still be written and stuff. You will just have them digitally. Which is more environmentally friendly, I’ll give them that. And would make school books a lot cheaper. But they’ll still be around. Just in a different way. Sort of like how music didn’t become obsolete because they went from tapes to cds and then from cds to mp3s. Music still exists. People still love music. But it’s just in a different form now. Not that big of a deal.
I could not sleep without a book!!!! In 15 years I will be 80 and I still plan on taking a book to bed to read. Please God let me keep my eyesight. I don’t think I could take an ipad or kindle or anything cold plastic or metal to get me to sleep. PLEASE LET THERE ALWAYS BE BOOKS. Also, my daughter and I have instilled the reading trait in her 3 kids age 9,8,and 4!
Oh my gosh, I sure hope not. Perhaps the purchase of books in actual bookstores will decline, as online shopping has become increasingly popular. But there’s nothing quite like the feeling of a book in your hands… besides, reading on e-readers or computers hurts my eyes. You can’t really curl up in bed and read from your laptop the same way you can curl up with a good book. No, I don’t believe books will become obsolete any time soon.
I really hope they don’t. There’s just something about the feel of a real book that can’t compare.
I think 20 years would be more accurate, but yes, they will become obsolete.
8-track tapes were replaced by cassettes. Who buys either today? Anyone ever save things on floppy disks anymore? People can crawl into bed with Nook now and not need a book light.
There are still college txt books, great money makers for bookstores.
Considering the number of comments concerning how pissed off people will be if printed books are no longer available, I don’t think we’ll ever completely turn away from them. For one, it’s a part of human heritage. It was the printing press that first gave way to mass communication and made it possible for larger quantities of people to read and become educated, if not for the nostaglic purpose of keeping printed books around I believe they won’t fade away completely. And even if books are discontinued in print, libraries will remain at least as a relic of a previous age, similiar to museums that contain artifacts and relics from history. To some degree there will always be a way of reading something in print.
@Momo_Wakahisa - I agree. I believe no matter what we will continue to technologically advance; after all, it is logical for the printed book to become obsolete, but as I said in my other comment, there’s too many people who relish a good old fashion paperback.
i don’t know but a good friend has a Kindle and it has encouraged her to read and read and read. i think there might be some correlation to this as other people i know often cite the effect that the Kindle has had on their reading habits compared to books.
while i don’t think there will be a total collapse of print in general, i think it will eventually come to occupy a special niche. after all, going to Barnes & Noble, drinking coffee while reading magazines is a great way to relax away from home. i can’t see everyone giving that up to a noticeable degree.
yes, remember Ray Bradbury
I think it will take longer, because unless someone decides to buy Nooks for all of America’s youth by 2025 that you can annotate on, textbooks and printed classics like Gatsby or Mockingbird will be around for a while.
Videos and cassetes weren’t a regular, everyday tool for education. Books, however, are.
I’ve got mixed feelings on it, turning anything into electronic media makes it infinitely distributable (regardless of legal implications), more or less free to publish, and there’s no real need to go through the process of fiddling with publishers. I don’t know that this will mean any improvement, there being less quality control involved, but on the same token, that quality control often abridges the writer’s ability to fully express themselves.
Barnes & Noble Booksellers is already on sale.
I have always dreamed of having my own room full of books and dvds with a huge rolling ladder and a big ol’ pile of pillows to lay on.
Just sayin’.
For someone who reads all the time I do hope that you are wrong.
I think that even if printed book usage declines over the next few years that there will always be a use for them. There are some scenarios and locations where having the physical copy will be more useful and practical. I also think it would just be wise to keep hard tangible copies of text around, especially when dealing with important information.
I wouldn’t say obsolete; there’s a charm in turning a page that a screen just can’t capture. But book sales will probably continue to decrease for a while and then even out.
They’re trying to become that way.
But I’m not getting a Kindle or anything. I like reading actual books. The smell, the texture, the weight of a book in my hand, turning the pages.. Can’t get that with a Kindle or a Nook.
I hope not. I love books, and I’d rather not use an e-book.
I think eventually paper books will become obsolete, but it will take longer than 15 years. I think it will be two or three generations before we allow that to happen.
no. i hate reading off the screen. sometimes i read just so my eyes can take a break from staring at the monitor all day.
i think there’s a difference reading online vs. reading a physical book. whereas for videos/movies, you are staring at the screen either way.
Eventually I am sure that the push to all e-books will happen. I don’t think it will be soon. I don’t think it is too far out either. They will come out with more clever e-readers. They have one in Japan, that is for newspapers, and it folds just like a news paper. It’s a little cheaper too. Nothing can replace a nice hard cover book. And nothing will ever be able to replace my personal library, but for travel and the like, it’s convenient to take my e-reader as opposed to 7 or 8 books.
There may possibly be a time in the distant future when printed books become obsolete, but it won’t be in 15 years (if at all). Too many people still prefer and rely on physical books. I personally hope that never happens. People spend too much time staring at screens already. We don’t need another reason.
On another note, I think if books do become obsolete, libraries will still be around. Most libraries offer digital download borrowing services now (you need a library card to be authorized to download a book, and the book file expires after a certain number of days), so they’ll still be around for that and for people to take out physical copies of older books. Libraries offer tons of of other servies as well, they’re not just about books. Used book stores will still be around as well, for people to buy, sell, and trade old copies of books. I mean, books aren’t like VHS or cassette tapes…you don’t need technology to use them. And the books that exist now aren’t going to suddenly disappear. So even if they’re no longer physically published, people will still buy them.
No, but there won’t be as many.
For textbooks, you need something that you can highlight and carry around with you to study. It’s not the same on a lap top.
Nothing beats curling up into bed with a good book.
Way to break my heart </3
People attach too much emotion to an inferior technology. If you really loved reading, the manner in which you did so would have no impact whatsoever on that love. Books are wasteful, easily degrade, can be physically uncomfortable (try taking a huge textbook to read in bed) and require a lighting source. Technology might not have perfected alternative methods for reading yet, but it will, and the end result will be superior to the printed book.
Oh god I hope not. I hate reading off of a screen, but that might just be me.
i really don’t think so, some of us old timers have tried the kindle and miss the feel, smell and overall fabness of an actual book.
NOOOOOOOOOOOOO SAY IT AIN’T SO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I refuse to live in a world where books are no longer put in print on paper. Though I do see the advantages of kindles and such for travel. I would rather read a book on paper than online or electronically.
If libraries and book stores go obselete it’s because we are entering an age where people no longer read much. That is a bad omen. It’s like a New Dark Age is descending.
The people who read a lot will be affluent. The rest will become the permanent lower class.
I don’t think books will become entirely obsolete. Not everyone can afford computers–especially schools/students. Printed copies are far more practical than requiring schools to give out laptops or forcing students to buy their own.
books are obsolete for the purpose people want to use them.
15 years from now literature in general will be seen like we see people reading NAS (national academy of sciences) now. i have people give me weird looks for reading a book 500+ pages. i suspect that people will find reading books more than 250+ pages to be equally strange fairly soon.
also grammar and coherent thought are on the way out. none of my english teachers (before 300 level in college) could form sentances, and few had ever heard of the phrases ‘sentence fragment’ or ‘non-seqitor’. and frankly the 300 level guy had a doctorate in english… so, the system still probably is failing the majority of students.
While I don’t think that new books will be electronic only in 15 years, I do think that the majority of book purchases will be electronic. Lets look at it this way: how many people would’ve guessed in 1995 that the majority of music would not be on a physical format (like CDs and Casettes) by 2010? I don’t think many people would, as there wasn’t much in the way of music on computers back then and the internet was mostly limited to dial-up. While places like Wal-Mart and Best Buy still sell CDs, many if not most people these days have MP3 players that can hold hundreds if not thousands of songs in a little device. I see books being the same way, as eReader technology will get better to the point where it’ll be like reading a real book. And those who need the physical media will be able to get most used books at a cheaper price because people will sell them for little money in order to free up the space that they will now have thanks to eReaders. So yeah, I think physical books will become mostly obsolete in 15 years, and I don’t think it’s a bad thing.
No I highly disagree… they may become less used due to the internet and e-books, but there is something about holding the actual book in your hand that will compel people to read real books for a long time to come.
NEVERRRRR!
I still buy plenty of printed book so I hope not
That made my heart sink. I won’t allow it!
I guess we’ll see.
I personally don’t read books.
So I don’t have a preference of in my hands vs. online.
When we run out of electricity, where will we get our knowledge!!?
Then again, when we run out of trees…
I feel like there are enough people who prefer printed books in the world to keep the bookstores alive.
yes.. ever heard of nooks or e-books.
like whenever i get textbooks sometimes i don’t know why i have them but think it’s a waste of space and money.
I prefer books, they are a bit easier to read. I am thinking others feel the same way about them, so I do not see books dying out. But I do see them being even less popular than they are now
I hope that dosen’t happen. but with being able to get books downloaded to your kindle and on the computer it probably will.
I don’t think so, I would rather read printed books. Even though less people read, a lot of people still do.
probably
I love having books in my hands no matter how old they are. I can agree with some people here that onjline books are a complete fail.
I go for printed books because I like the feel of books in your hand and the flipping of the page (not virtually), the smell, the walking in a bookstore and browsing, etc…
They better never fully go away!!! I think I will end up being the kind of grandma that tells her grandchildren about the good ol’ days with actual books you could feel and places you had to walk into to buy the book.
Then again, look at theatre? Live theatre is still around even though movies have come about. They have different feels and different atmospheres and different audiences. *is determined*
I prefer a printed book. I can underline, write notes or symbols for things I want to remember or reference later (depending on the book). I love the smell of books (new and old). I love the smell of a library, used book stores, and some new bookstores.
For the kindle you don’t really own your book. You can’t really replace it to another device. If your kindle dies then your book collection dies with it. They charge you more for some ebooks than for the actual book you can buy new or used.
I don’t wholly hate ebooks either. I wouldn’t mind having a back up of a book I own in a digital format clean, but I would not want that to be my only copy. That is also true with my music and movies. I don’t only keep a digital format. There is such things as data rot. No matter the format. I want to keep my stuff in the best format available. I still think that right now that is paper, cd’s, and dvds. With appropriate backsups as needed or for a given time.
NEVER! I alone will keep libraries in business. Plus. It’s bad for your eyes to read on a screen so much. It’s been scientifically proven that reading a BOOK before going to bed helps relax your mind, eyes, body. But if you read off of a computer screen before going to bed you have much more trouble sleeping.
That.
I don’t think they are. At least I HOPE they’re not! I freaking love books and book stores.
@trunthepaige - Tragic. I think that is what is becoming the true downfall of our education system. Not enough reading.
I prefer printed books when I’m reading or doing research but digital when writing papers.
I expect printed books will eventually become obsolete, but there will have to be advances in electronic readers. I DO NOT read books online. I would consider getting a Kindle or iPad if changes were made. I’m waiting for companies to sort out format and licensing issues. I do not want to pay for a file that will only be good on one reader. I do not want to pay too much for a reader that will soon be obsolete and not supported by the manufacturer, and I do not want all the files I bought to permanently disappear when the reader breaks down.
If we stop printing books and close libraries before electronic readers are cheap and universal, the poor will find it even harder to get an education.
@LoBornlytesThoughtPalace - keyword: printed
He didn’t say books in general would cease to exist…he was suggesting that books will only be available in an electronic format (which, personally, I’d be a fan of…since it’s both more environmentally friendly and simply more convenient to carry books as electronic files rather than printed paper [the I can hold thousands of books where you can only hold one argument]).
Then again, since I’m from the Fascist Nazi Anti-Human Communist Socialistic Axis of Demonic Evil, what would I know?
I hope not I have always wanted a library room.
I am interested in the kindle however I am the type of person to buy the book anyhow for my shelf. I don’t see public library’s going away. There are so many people that can’t afford to buy computers, internet, and then buy a downloaded book. That isn’t going to change in the next 15 years in my opinion so i’m sure real books will stick around a lot longer.
This can’t happen. There is something very different between the printed word and the digital. I could read all day online and feel like I wasted so much time. I read books for hours, and feel like I’ve been more productive when I haven’t touched a computer all day. I refuse to buy any digital books and I will never get a Kindle or any other kind of digital reader. Besides, it wouldn’t even be that logical to eliminate print; all kinds of things can go wrong with electronic equipment, and in an emergency (like a flood, hurricane, earthquake, freakin’ World War III) is it going to be easier to throw a paperback book in a bag to take with you to the evac center, or a laptop or e-reader with the charger and everything? What if something happens to the power or internet service in your area? How are you gonna keep from losing your mind without something to read to remind you what normal looks like?
Yeah, I’ve thought about this.
It’s very unwise to depend so much on a machine of any kind, in any
case. Have we learned nothing from the Matrix trilogy? (besides the fact
that, no matter how much practice he gets, Keanu will never be able to
act more than two characters, one of them being Ted Logan)
God I hope not. Nothing beats being snuggled up in the covers with a book on a rainy day, or hiding in a bubble bath with a favorite fantasy tale to de-stress. No matter how far technology comes, I’ll still love the smell of a new book the first time you read it through and the smell of an old book once treasured by someone else.
I’m never making a switch.
Books are so much better… there’s something about just having a material book in your hand, instead of a computer or some other device.
I hope not. Reading a book online is just not the same as reading a printed book. Plus that would mean the amazing comforting smell of bookstore plus small coffee shop would be gone. And that would be just devastating.
I would hope not. I think a lot of people still prefer printed books. But, if books go to download only then I guess I just won’t get books anymore. I prefer the feel of the book in my hand.
And I don’t want libraries, or book stores to go under. I love both too much.
No0o0. I refuse to believe that books are becoming obsolete. I know that independent bookstores are going under, being overpowered by Borders and Barnes&Nobles. That’s bad enough already. I don’t think books will become obsolete though, even with new products like the kindle. It just seems like the essence of books is completely lost without being able to hold it in your hands, feel and turn the pages, and open/close the cover.
i really hope not.
i actually really enjoy reading books. and i love barnes and nobles. and the way a new book smells. my uncle on the other hand is all about the online books and whatnoti hope this doesnt happen :/
no way, i hate reading on the computer, it strains my eyes. books will never become obsolete, especially to early childhood and elementary teachers. books are vital.
i think it will take longer than 15 years, but that it is sure to happen. this breaks my heart, i love books, it feels much more intimate to read a physical book than to read it online. i can’t stand those new kindles and such!
I disagree. It’s possible the printed form will become obsolete-ish, but definitely not in fifteen years.
For one thing, while digital books already exist and are fairly popular, they are by no means dominating book sales even though they have now been around for several years. Once their price goes down and more people use them, will they become much more popular? Probably, but that would be over the course of at least 25 years, considering how long it is taking now.
It also depends on how you define obsolete, because you are examining this only from a very privileged perspective, of someone growing up in America (and I assume you are in the middle class at least since you have constant access to computers and a steady job, etc). While it is true the digital book may reign supreme in America, most of the rest of the world is not as quick to embrace technology/have the means for most citizens to buy digital reading devices. So books will remain quite popular in less prosperous countries for a long time, considering that there are many countries where the majority of citizens do not own a computer yet (let alone something like a Kindle).
Not to mention that the technology we use is often defined by what we grew up with. Everyone growing up now is still used to reading books in print form. While some people might be open to the idea, many will stay with what they are used to; just like there are some elderly people who do know how to text, but most still prefer to call the old fashioned way.
While things like magazine and dictionaries might be easy to access online, many people balk at the idea of reading an entire book on a screen. Your example of a dictionary is especially particular to dictionaries because of their format; using a computer dictionary is much quicker and easier to use than a real one because you just have to enter the word and it pops up, rather than flipping back and forth. Reading an entire book isn’t much faster or quicker to do on the computer, in contrast.
I disagree. I LOVE my Kindle though! I don’t even read printed books anymore.
Nooooooooooooooo! I can’t use online books for school. I have to be able to underline and write in them. And I just like BOOKS!
I sure hope not. I prefer printed books, especially ones that are used. They have a history to them and you can see all the stupid drawings in them and what not, and they smell amazing (creepy alert har har har).
From one point of view, I think printed books as media have been becoming *more* obsolete for some time, simply owing to a seeming decline in collective literacy.
However, I don’t think a few e-readers and online books are going to topple a technology that’s been around for anywhere between 500 years and several millenia (depending on how you look at it). Bear in mind that both widespread VHS and DVD collectively are only about 30 years old, and movies can bypass tangible distribution methods more easily than can books. Printed media, while changing, is still deeply entrenched in our culture.
You’ll see a decline in book usage, maybe, but not a collapse.
@Momo_Wakahisa - That’s what he meant. Printed books, now that there are such things as e-readers that can take a pdf and truly make it portable without lugging around your whole laptop, might make printed books obsolete. I, for one, am sad to see this happen. For one thing, having a hard copy means that you don’t have to worry about glitches, power failures, or the storage device failing to keep your book. All you have to worry about is worms and fire. Then again, I’m pretty old fashioned. I’m trying to analogize my entire life while everyone else is trying to digitize. If people want to get rid of their old paper books that are just cluttering up their living rooms, they can send them to me. Hint, hint.
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I hope not. I love printed books. I don’t even read that often, but I don’t think I’d ever get a Kindle or anything cause I just love the feeling and smell of books. I also love going to used bookstores and seeing what random older books I can find. I ended up getting an original American edition of The Bell Jar by Sylvia Plath (which is one of my favorite reads) for $4.00.
I do not believe books will become obsolete. Too many people are writing and selling their books.
Radio shows make commercial endorsement money pushing books. If they are all online, there will always be ways to hack they system to read them free and publishers DON’T WANT THAT.I love books and libraries and book stores. I love the smell of the pages and reading in the tub and at the park. I do not take lap tops with me everywhere and i don’t even much like laptops anyway. At the click of a switch, there can be electricity outages in certain areas. What then?I enjoy knowing that I have my books, whether i have electricity or not.
I would hope not. There’s just something about having that physical book in my hand to read that I love. I prefer reading from an actual book to reading from e-readers or a computer screen. Hurts my eyes (the computer screen).
I have a dream of having my own library if I ever own my own house lol.
I predict thetheologianscafe will blog again soon in the near future.
Do you believe thetheologianscafe will blog again?
I’ve feared that they would become obsolete. That would be a sad, sad day. I recently went to Powell’s the largest book store in the country – and they seemed to be thriving and I hope always will. There is a certain magic in the pages of a book, held in your hands.
Film cameras have become nearly obsolete. Unfortunately, I can see paper-and-ink books becoming obsolete as well. And when the internet and technology as we know it becomes obsolete (as I believe someday it will), an entire generation (or two) of our world history will be lost along with it.
It seems as if this could be possible BUT (and I’m really hoping this is the case) because of the eye strain that long term reading off of a screen causes perhaps books won’t be totally replaced. And besides, a book is so easy to slip into a bag to take to a coffee shop, doctor’s office waiting room or wherever. Granted, a Kindle would be easy too, but most people either can’t afford or would rather not spend $300 on a reading device.
@Galbsadi - I don’t think people are going to curl up to their iPad to read a book. The coming generation is composed of people that are basically illiterate. They have short attention spans and simply will not sit still long enough to read books, no matter what the medium.
i love reading books i cant read books online i like actually holding the book and the smell of new and old books. i do think we wont have that many bookstores or libraires. i think borders and barnes and noble will always be around.
Maybe its the Librarian/ Archivist in me, but I will always prefer a good old fashioned book to staring at a screen for hours. Yeah it may cost a little extra, and yeah it may take up more space, but for books I’m willing to give up a little extra.
NOOOOOO!!!! I love books!!!! Nothing can ever replace the feel of a book in your hands. Nope, not ever.
NO.
Oh no. Please don’t say that. I certainly hope not. It’s just NOT the same.
I want the crinkle of the paper.I want to wet my thumb to turn the next page.I want to keep them all in my bookshelf to witness what I’ve read.I want to cozy up with my book and a cup of coffee.
I would like to state that I believe you a moron. It is trendy in the pseudo-intellectual world of blogging to write amateur posts without due consideration.
Look for the term “eReader” to become more prevalent, but the experience of shopping at a bookstore will leave said organizations (and those similar) a place in the market. Most people of worth already know that reading on a screen is approximately 20% slower than reading in print; therefore, books theoretically have a place. Those who are informed will know that certain hand-held devices (simply Google “eReader”) now come with functions to make this gap obsolete. It is doubtless that said stores are to observe fewer in-store customers, but will also benefit from greater online sales. This will not necessarily be an ostensible deterrent to having physical stores, because most of these stores are equipped for in-store online sales and serve as advertising.
What you believe is without value or any considerable amount of thought.
A lot of people prefer the actual printed book, so this probably won’t happen for a long time if at all. Thanks goodness, since I very much prefer the real thing to an online version. It just isn’t the same.
I think e-book will take over, however, books will always be around.
This made me laugh. I bought eighteen books within the past two days alone.
I refuse to read a book on my iPhone, or buy a Kindle or anything like that. The idea itself actually disgusts me. I think reading a book without holding it, printed and bound, within your hands completely cheapens and depersonalizes the experience. There are so many people who prefer printed books to e-books that I don’t see books becoming obsolete any time soon.
Nooooooooooo.
Maybe less popular, but I highly doubt they’ll become obsolete anytime in the near future.
I prefer printed books. Nothing like the feel, the smell, the texture, turning the pages, throwing it in a bag or in the back of the car, fresh ink smell on a new book. The paper cuts. Books are joy!
I love my Kindle. I can’t even tell you the last time I held an actual book, other than my Bible (which I also have on my Kindle, but I use my hard copy for Bible study.)
I do wish more people would switch over to the kindle-type technology… It’s utterly a shame how many resources are wasted on printing books.
However, I don’t believe this will happen any time soon. Bookstores will not die off, as plain text books are not the only thing they sell. Some things will still need to be printed (picture heavy books, manuals, etc)
No. Just… no.
The Oxford Dictionary is quite expensive, only bought by libraries and what not, and even at that, libraries aren’t exactly rolling in money. Also, The Oxford Dictionary does not represent all books. It is simply a bug on the book industry windshield.
You don’t READ a dictionary, you use it.
No. I mean, the radio’s still around so… Nothing can replace the feeling of holding a book between your hands and turning the pages, the ability to dog-ear it or highlight important parts (for studying), etc. They’re not going anywhere.
It won’t happen!!!
NEVARRR!! We have enough trees to cut. And then there’s recycling too. So… there’s no excuse!! Printed books will not die and neither will book stores. (I’m semi-kidding on the trees comment. Tree huggers, please do not throw stones at me.)
@deliciaeindomitus - YES!! Beautiful.
This would be a tragedy.
@LoBornlytesThoughtPalace - From my personal experience, it’s really not so difficult to curl up and read a book on an electronic device as one might think. As for the attention span of the coming generation, I don’t know…I guess time will tell.
I don’t think so. Devices that support ebooks are astronomical in prices-probably worth a year’s salary of a minimum wage earner in a developing country. Furthermore, I think there is enough bibliophiles out there to justify the existence of the printed word.
NO! Reading a hard-copy book is way better. Its better than staring to the computer(it hurts the eye). If that happens,more people will have a bad eyesight
I felt awful after reading that until I saw all the comments. I’m glad so many people are loyal to books.
AHHHHHHHHHHH NOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!! I REFUSE to believe that books can become obsolete! For the record, paper does not strain your eyes as much as computer screens do. Books are meant to be perused under the covers, marked with folded corners and fondled until the binding is on the verge of falling apart. That’s what books are– your portable, lightweight companions, and no Kindle or computer screen should take that comforting experience, that delight of turning page after page away. *sniff*
Also, it would become harder for authors to make money– like what happened to music after digital copies could be hosted and sold– which means writers, no matter how passionate they are, will lose what little incentive they have to keep writing. This is not good, because then novels will become a less attractive stake-your-life occupation. Novel writing has always been a rather risky occupation, especially for those whose lives become centered on catching that one single fancy and nailing it down with tears and all-nighters and solitary walks, but this will further decrease the attractive nature of the field. Yes, those who can’t imagine doing anything else will probably still write, but they probably won’t make as much money. Unless–
oh, the horror! Unless corporations take over books! Lady Gaga and other pop singers top the chart today not really because of their signing but their advertisers and managers with big pockets who have shunted the local, indie scene out of the way. I really, really hope that this doesn’t become a race to promote through the internet. Oh dear…
No, I, and plenty of people like me, prefer printed books to their online counterparts.
Aw, but I love my printed books
This is a trend that prognosticators have been predicting for years now, and while I agree that it’s undeniable that there has been a steady increase in the amount of online, or e-reading, that’s being done, I don’t think paper books will disappear any time soon. My reasons for thinking so are several-fold. First, though e-readers (e.g., iPad, netbooks) are becoming more and more prevalent and while their cost is continuing to decrease, they still have a long way to go before they read the price-barrier where they’d saturate the market at a deep enough level to push paper books out of the scene. Second, though the technology behind e-readers has improved, it still has a long way to go in order to reach the durability and reliability factor of paper books – think kids shoving paperback down into the recesses of their backpacks or the romance novel a young adult takes to the beach getting squashed under the chair of her beach chair. Third, there’s a psychological and physiological relationship that we have with paper that just can’t be replaced with technology – not yet at least.
Electronic forms of books will undoubtedly continue to increase in availability and popularity, and they have great uses in certain specific areas. More and more college textbooks are coming with supplemental electronic resources or even an electronic copy of the entire book to aid in searching and studying. Electronic resources are also ideally suited for content that changes on a regular basis (i.e., tax books).
But if you think paper books and brick-and-mortar bookstores are going to disappear anytime soon, stop by your nearest Borders or Barnes & Noble on any weekend and look around. If you live in any area anything like mine, you’ll find the store packed with people browsing the aisles, slumped in chairs, or parked in the coffee shop – paper books in hand, minds immersed in what they are reading.
I love reading news and blogs online, bit I have always been partial to books. I love books. love the cover, the paper, the smell of a new book, the smell of an old book. The day bookstores, libraries and printed form dies will be the end of the world. But thats just my opinion
15 years is too soon a time frame I think, but your general opinion I think is true based on current trends. The wild card is the possible effect of economic collapse and a prolonged global depression running smack into catastrophic climate change. If that persists for a long time books will continue to exist for the vast majority of poor people who can’t afford the awesome electronic gadgets. The smaller set of elites who have college degrees and professional degrees from higher end educational institutions as well as the business leaders and such will continue to trend away from books in most conceivable futures.
However, libraries are probably doomed either way. Sadly society seems to have deemed libraries not to be “essential” government functions and our new values seem to make us uncomfortable with basic values like “sharing” which libraries promote. We already see library systems becoming defunded across the country, the first thing to go as States go bankrupt. Some libraries will persist. Major colleges and universities will still have libraries. People will in concert come together to make their own makeshift libraries. But the major public library systems have a very uncertain future.
Major bookstores similarly are facing huge risks in the future. They will have to radically change their business models. Either by finding a way to radically reduce prices despite lowering salaries or else move to only serve the more wealthy communities. Many I suspect will turn into book exchanges and used book stores like Half-Price books. We see this with video games as everybody from Target to BestBuy are suddenly getting into the used games market as games go more “online”. That doesn’t surprise me and I will expect the same to happen to books before they are completely made electronic.
However, even if the economy bounces back, books will still linger around for a long time due to nostalgia and convenience. And because older generations will have a hard time getting used to newer electronic systems. Amazon will continue to sell physical books for years and years I’m betting. As will general purpose stores like Walmart. And of course book exchanges, farmers markets, and the likes will still distribute books.
In the end though, you’re right. Books are going to go away for the most part. Storing knowledge online is far more efficient and way cheaper for companies to distribute.
And I personally have no problem with that. Sometimes I prefer printed books, but both work fine and the ability to search and easily take notes makes digital books pretty effective.
@Iobot - LMAO!!!! Love it!!
“I beleive libraries will close up shop”
Pretty much proves your point, doesn’t it lobot ?
books in printed form will become outdated and even more costly. I can not wait untill schools make the switch to Ebooks rather than the bulky texts they use now. One kindle can hold and entire library worth of text and is lightweight and easy to carry. I love my kindle because of this. I hope to one day be able to get rid of our bookshelf by replacing all my printed books onto the kindle.
No way. Book stores may come and go- but libraries are here to stay. I wonder how many Kindles will eventually be filling up those landfills… I’d say the tech books that are obsolete within a year would be the books to go totally online. But as for literature and fiction, it’s a lot easier to cuddle up with a book than a kindle when you want to read all night long.
I don’t see books becoming completely obsolete. There are always going to be luddites and collectors out there who are going to want a physical book in thier hands as opposed to an e-reader. Books will also be needed when electronics fail, sort of like how everyone keeps a few candles and a lighter in thier house in case the power goes out.
Public Libraries aren’t going anywhere either. Electronic or not, books are expensive and people hard up on cash will always need the free resources libraries offer. The computer resources in most public libraries are already being used by the poor, unemployeed and everyone else who can’t afford thier own PC.
@nephyo - While part of me understands the basis for your comments about libraries, I’d have to say that I disagree that they are doomed. Certainly local and state governments support them to varying degrees, and this has a huge impact on the quality of the resultant systems, but the last two states I’ve lived in have had vibrant library systems. Granted there has been a trend toward more electronic resources (i.e., DVDs, computers with Internet access), but the library systems in my area continue to amass collections of paper books and continue to be patronized by large volumes of community members. I guess based on my own observations and experience, I don’t think we’re heading to an either-or scenario of either printed books or electronic books. I think instead we’re moving to a both-and scenario where both printed material and electronic material will be readily available. I also think community libraries will continue to exist and will continue to evolve to satisfy the diversifying needs of their communities.
I prefer printed books.
@Galbsadi - It isn’t difficult, but book reading is much more enjoyable than trying to read from and LCD screen.
Something about having a printed book in my hands stirs my imagination more than looking at the screen and reading. Maybe it’s different for everybody.
nooooooooo i hope not!
I think that the print industry will take a hit and certainly cut back a good deal, but I do believe that some people will never switch over to e-books
I love being able to read my books without a battery thanks.
However, if this could somehow save me money on textbooks, I’d be up for it in some form. If they’re just gonna charge me 200 dollars for an online book instead, I’d rather have the physical book.
I don’t think it will happen and I think libraries will stay open. I prefer the simplicity and ease of a paper book, and, my take is that due to an electro magnetic pulse type weapon, or sun spots, we may loose a lot of our digital information in the future and will again become dependent on paper and ink.
@Allyson_Singsxo - I’ve read of some high schools experimenting with a move toward ebooks. The idea is that they would provide Kindles or Nooks or similar devices to students and then all textbooks would be electronic. The intent is twofold – 1) administrators claim that today’s kids do everything electronically, so this is just adapting to their learning style and 2) the districts hope to save money through the reduced cost of ebooks. As always, however, there are some less-obvious, hidden costs. For example, administrators have talked about how parents would be able to buy “optional” insurance to protect for any damage a student might unwittingly do to their e-reader.
I don’t think so. I will not read a book online, I must have it in print. And I believe a lot of people do too.
I will never read a book online. I need ink and paper in my hands.
I will kill myself if bookshops were to ever close up and books became obsolete. Books are my life. I thrive on them. I’ll have every reason to hate the human race, indefinitely, if this were to happen.
Partly true, although there is a problem with your example…
There will be a switching of status. The online release will be the primary release and the print release will be a smaller, less significant release. There will still be books in print however, just like there are still videos to rent or buy… maybe not so much from Blockbuster if your local store closed, but you can go to the Netflix vending machine at your local Walmart to rent, or go in to Walmart and buy it, or watch it online.
There will always be books in print, but the primary release format of books in the future will certainly not be print, but rather an electronic format.
so you’ll all have square eyes? Good luck with that. I’ll keep to my books.
No. But you are.
I think E-books will definitely become preferable to printed text books and such (dictionaries, etc.) just for the fact that they are lighter and cheaper, but novels and other such fiction will still be printed regardless.
I totally believe that. Last night my mother-in-law said she heard that Barnes & Noble may have to cut their stock down an insane amount. I doubt they last long. Personally, I’d probably literally cry if they went out of business. It’s the only place to find a lot of books, including books from my favorite author.
@Shaun - Some libraries are definitely attempting to adapt and adapt quickly, but I’ve seen a huge increasing trend of libraries increasing fines, reducing hours, even shutting down for days at a time. And while there are trends to increase libraries multimedia capabilities, computer technologies, and community oriented functions that have varying degrees of success based on the area, I think there is a certain degree of change that once introduced the thing we are talking about may well bear the name but ceases to really BE a library. If most people go to the “library” to do school work because it’s a quiet area or to rent DVDs, but the book collection is almost non-existent, or ceases to update to newer books as they come out, is that really a library?
It will be interesting to watch. Definitely in some communities there will be a strong push to preserve libraries and I hope that it spreads to more and more. But too many people seem to treat libraries as an unnecessary luxury these days, especially people with the power over state and local budgets. So I am very skeptical. But I hope people prove me wrong.
@nephyo - I completely understand where you’re coming from, and I do hope you are wrong but fear you may not be. Ultimately the best thing that those of us who believe in the public library system can do is continue to put pressure on our elected officials to financially support them.
way to steal my photo dan…Also NO i love the covers of books the smell of books the length of books. they will not be obsolete in 15 years. you have no idea what your talking about. 99% of physical books is AUTHORS income! number of copies!!!! digital is just another convience. Repharase your first sentence. “I think we will be in the digital age in 15 years. YEsi believe that too. Also lots of authors dont want their books being published digitally. so do you research and dont make blaint statements that books will be obsolete……colleges are still charging students 178.00 for certain books….so think more lol
@chadwilly - AMEN digital is too new like blu ray people still havent upgraded to blu ray ( i have) but i love books maybe if i was traveling non stop an i dont room for the book sure. but i will keep my physical books
no I don’t think so.
Blockbuster is already as obsolete as Amazon is becoming. I’d ballpark it at 7-10, not 15. Obsolete does equate to relevancy or value though. Printed books will still be relevant in all societies.
I doubt it – those who love books usually have a different mindset then those who love movies. Books lovers love not only the stories, but the feel/smell/sight of books – nobody loves the smell of a new DVD, lol. ~ L
Oh I hope not, there is nothing so nice as picking up a book, curling up in bed or on a couch, and reading for hours on end. It just isn’t the same without the actual book. There is also nothing as nice as walking in a library or bookstore and picking out a large pile of books to take home and read.
I work for a large higher education publishing company, and I’m not sure that printed books will ever become “obsolete,” but the trend is definitely moving towards online books. Today’s generation is growing up with technology, it’s first nature to them, and online books have the flexibility to go anywhere you have an internet connection or access to a computer (laptop, iPad, Cell Phone, iPod, etc.) No more lugging a big heavy book bag back and forth to class.
There still will never be anything quite like being able to curl up on a couch with your favorite blanket and a cup of coffee with a good book, but times are a changing, at least in education.
I definitely disagree with your beliefs. Unlike videos, books have been around forever. Think about it. It’s only been less than what, sixty years, since the TV was even created. Books in some form or another have been around since the beginning of time. I know that we’re living in the technology age, but I don’t foresee us ever giving up our books.
Seriously people who think this in my opinion are stupid. Books are not going anywhere, you need to remember that not everyone is going to have access to books digitally.
Isn’t that what people said 15 years ago when the internet started to gain super popularity among the masses? *LOL* Books will never be obsolete.
This is one thing that worries me as a future writer. However, I admit that I do own a Kindle, and it is probably one of my better investments. At the same time, I imagine it will be very hard to do away with books. I think magazines and newspaper may go first. Reading is a dying art. The beginning of “Save the Printed Word” campaigns is already upon us. It will just take awhile for the rest of the world to see it.
All the book stores in a 40 mile radius of our town have gone out of business. You now have Wal-Mart and…uh…the internet. Unless you want to make a trip into Chico, Oroville, or Sacramento to get one.
Oddly, we have two libraries, but their selections are kind of limited. My town isn’t the most renown for having scholars and philosophers abound. We used to be the meth capital of the world!
I still buy paper books. I think it will take more than a few years for books to collapse in entirety. The older generations will till cling to treasured ways of their youth/prime. There will always be a need for people who can’t afford them to borrow them, and while libraries may become smaller, they will still be around for years to come. How about the treasure of sharing a book you just read with a friend? Kindledoesn’t let you do that.
I could also point to the continuation of vinyl records and music CDs. Despire overwhelming popularity of digital devices to carry our music, these are till selling.
It isn’t books that are becoming obsolete, it is reading that is fading away. if it can’t be read in the amount of time it takes to use the toilet, it isn’t read. The popultaion of readers is dwindling while the population of bloggers and netsurfers grows by leaps and bounds. Right now non-fiction books are selling better than fiction, not because more people read non-fiction, but because a non-fiction book can be set on a shelf or coffee table to show visitors and guests what the buyer’s interests are. Also, as books die out so does language. Grammar is being replaced by acronyms like idk, lol, and jk. I’ve actually heard people say such the acronyms. In short, each new generation of technogoons is becoming less and less literate while giving themselves a false sense of knowledge which is picked up in chatrooms and wikis on the net.
I recently asked a friend of my son what was the last book she read. She couldn’t remember the title, but recalled that it was a thin little paperback that was yellow with some diagonal black stripes on the cover.
bookstores might become obsolete (maybe libraries too, but i think they’ll last a bit longer than bookstores). certain books like the dictionary, encyclopedia biographies/autobiographies will become obsolete, but i don’t think all printed books will be. there are just too many people who still love to read printed books. i don’t like to read, but i don’t see reading printed books a dying hobby within 15 years.
I hope that is so far from the truth.
speaking of books becoming obsolete…my friends who are professional photographers said that kodak and fuji film will never go out of business no matter how much technology has evolved and “upgraded”. despite the fact that there are billions of digital photographers and digital cameras, film photography will never die because there are some true die-hard photographers who will always buy and develop film. so yeah, film and printed books will be around for a long time.
I don’t know if book stores will collapse. People enjoy book stores for the experience of book stores. People go there to socialize and read, or even to go to starbucks. You also have people who like printed books for the printed books. People like myself, who wants every book he reads on his bookshelf. However, I don’t know. Perhaps even with people like myself, and other people who like book stores for the experience of the book store, perhaps the number of people who switch to e-books will take away from their profits too much for them to withstand in time.
Maybe in time. A lot of people torrent movies, but a lot of people still rent movies from the netflix(Flex? I forget the name).
Sigh. I really hope the day of printed books does not come to an end in my life time.
No. Never. As long as people continue to consume printed books (Which they will) they will not be obsolete. I love reading. I buy physical books, and I always will. I abhor reading on the computer, and I’m not interested in ereaders. I like to actually READ a BOOK. Reading off of a screen isn’t really good for you anyway. It hurts the eyes.
I don’t think that’ll ever happen. For one, it prevents us from keeping solid written proof of existence outside technology. It’s also easier to control information in books from being spread out without being payed for because someone would have to copy the entire book to distribute it for free. Not a whole lot of people will do that. They’ll survive just because of the way text book companies monopolize their information.
Which is good. Because I think the kindle is stupid.
You dont get that book smell or feel. Libraries will forever exist even when written books arn’t common. People will be able to look through old text book copies, newspapers, and magazines. There will however be a rise of technology. Libraries may become more computers than books.
I believe they will eventually but I think it will be a lot longer than 15 years.
I much prefer printed books. I don’t like e-books or anything of the sort; having a physical book in hand just feels so much more natural and right. Plus, printed books don’t run out of battery life.
They will never be obsolete for me, but I’m old fashioned. I like my music on a physical cd not a digital download, same with my dvd’s, my video games, my books, and my comic books. I want to hold them in my hand, and not have to fear a computer crash nullifying hundreds or thousands of dollars worth of invested funds. iTunes was nice enough to help me restore some digital music I had lost when my last computer died, but that was because they are a good company with good customer service and they made an exception to their own rules regarding such things.
i agree it seems as if they are slowly becoming less and less popular with each passing generation, but i hope they never do =[ I love books so much, love writing IN the book when reading shakespeare plays, flipping through pages and holding the book at night undercovers without worrying about damaging an expensive technological apparatus!
I love the feel of an actual book in my hands.
Certainly not! I for one love books, and the feel and owning them. I collect them when I can. Besides, I stare enough at a computer as it is. I love getting away for awhile with a good paperback (or hardback if I’m making bank)
I hope not. I want a library full of books, new and old! I also still go to the library. My local one was just rebuilt and its totally awesome!!
Maybe in 50-100 years. I prefer bound books and many people my age do and I’m only 24. Also, book sales have actually been increasing recently. I guess if e-readers got a lot cheaper books could become obsolete but honestly as of now you have to buy quite a few more books than the average person for an ereader to make economic sense.
I hope not. D:
We can already see that there aren’t as many private boutique-ish kind of book stores, but I think that there will still be enough of a reading base to keep real books in print.
I see this trend in music and movies definitely, but most people I know still read paper versions of books. I’ve actually never heard of someone reading a novel online.
I know one person with a Nook e-reader, but that’s all.
I think books will become obsolete (and replaced by digital versions) but not for a looong while.
PSH. NO. I freakin love books and have tons , and STILL buy them. I was actually thinking of stopping by barnes & noble tomorrow [:
i sure hope not
NO
who really wants to stare at a bright screen while they’re reading? that would be really annoying to me. I don’t often buy books, but I still want to read physical books from the library.
I doubt books will stop being printed. I know a lot of people, myself included, that never read books online. I prefer printed because I don’t have to sit and stare at my computers screen to read it, and I can take it anywhere I go. Sure you can use an ipad or amazon e-book or whatever that thing is, but that will never compare to the printed book, in my opinion anyway.
I love books. I hope they don’t become obsolete, but the trend says they will. Not only because we’re moving further into the computer age, but because paper will eventually be too expensive. As a writer, I’ve had many people tell me to go with an epublisher as that’s the way of the future, but I still want my books in print.
NO. I think people will jump the bandwagon and use ereaders but they will also keep on buying books. Libraries will still be available. There are circumstances where university libraries are going 80% electronic like Stanford’s engineering library but that was more so for efficiency than anything else. There is still a need for print.